Eine Kleine Nichtmusik

Witty and pertinent observations on matters of great significance OR Incoherent jottings on total irrelevancies OR Something else altogether OR All of the above

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

"Prediction is very difficult, especially when it is about the future" (Niels Bohr)

I had heard that Nate Silver's predictions had proved scarily accurate in the past, but I have to say that even I wondered about his prediction that the most likely outcome in terms of Electoral College votes would be 332 to Obama (hence 206 to Romney). (See the "Electoral Vote Distribution" graphic here. And yet if Florida calls for Obama, that is exactly what will have come to pass. I am now inclined to predict an Obama win in Florida.......

UPDATE: And that is exactly what happened, meaning that Nate Silver was 100% correct in all his predictions. "Too close to call" my ass: this one was always in the bag for Obama.


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